Trends and forecasts: how the CPA market will change in 2023

This year, companies in the Russian market have faced numerous challenges. The departure of foreign companies, the struggle for customers with strong Russian competitors, the blocking of large advertising platforms and many other obstacles forced companies to reconsider their strategies and adapt to new realities.

Under these conditions, the number of companies that turned to affiliate marketing to reduce risks continued to grow. Admitad Russia, a provider of IT solutions for performance marketing , has analyzed the key trends in the affiliate marketing market that have significantly affected the industry and will be relevant in the coming 2023.

2022 trends: laws, videos and a new era of tracking

Although not all social networks remained on the Russian market in 2022, this did not reduce the interest of advertisers in content creators. So, according to Admitad, on Black Friday, it was the content authors who brought more than a quarter of online orders to brands. Also, the CPA industry has been significantly affected by changes in legislation, in particular, new amendments to the law “On Advertising” and the CCPA, ePR and GDPR privacy policies.

Although not all social networks remained on the world market in 2023, this did not reduce the interest of advertisers in content creators. So, according to Admitad, on Black Friday, it was the content authors who brought more than a quarter of online orders to brands. Also, the CPA industry has been significantly affected by changes in legislation, in particular, new amendments to the law “On Advertising” and the CCPA, ePR and GDPR privacy policies.

● Growing influence of influencers and social networks

The departure of Instagram and Facebook (banned in Russia) and the inability to upload new videos to TikTok from Russian accounts led to the growth of the VKontakte and Telegram sites. The messenger has become one of the leaders in terms of the growth in the number of active users: for example, during Black Friday, more than 5% of all orders came only from this site.

The demand for the CPA format of working with bloggers is growing among brands - businesses need transparency, quick results and a minimum of risks. Therefore, the format of payment for results in such an effective but risky segment as content creation is now coming to the fore. Companies are paying more attention to the accuracy of affiliate network tracking and the quality of their affiliate base.  Video content has become one of the leading trends in affiliate marketing and social media in general. More and more customers are attracted through short videos (such as shorts on YouTube, stories and clips on VKontakte, and even circles on Telegram) or live broadcasts. At the same time, the video works both to increase brand awareness and increase the conversion rate.

Another growing trend is the interest in micro-influencers. With the help of CPA, not only large millionaire bloggers work with brands, but also local opinion leaders with a small, but very active and loyal audience.  

● Taking into account the new requirements of the law on advertising

From September 1, 2022, amendments to the Federal Law “On Advertising” came into force, and now all partner materials must be marked with the “advertisement” mark, unique identifier tokens must be added, and data on integrations must be sent to advertising data operators.

However, the fears of market participants that the volume of advertising will decrease due to changes in legislation did not come true. Particularly acute was the question of the demand for placements from bloggers and content creators, who previously created native integrations, and now have to mark outputs with a mark and transfer data to the ORD.

According to Admitad, during the transition period, the number of advertising integrations did not decrease, and in the future, the volume of investments in advertising by bloggers will not decrease. Perhaps, over time, some of the direct integrations will be transferred to intermediaries, but advertisers will continue to work with the blogging segment due to its effectiveness.

● Avoid third-party cookies and affiliate links

With the adoption of CCPA, ePR and GDPR policies, third-party cookies and tracking redirects are a thing of the past. Therefore, solutions have been replaced that allow you to build a chain of transitions without unnecessary redirects, which, for example, allows you to do Admitad Teleport.

Moreover, CPA is increasingly capturing sites that are inconvenient to attach links, so one of the trends is unique promotional codes, which are tracked without an affiliate link. Promo codes are used by content creators, bloggers, and sites that “dislike” links: for example, in videos, circles, or stories.

In addition to convenience, promo codes help fight fraud in the blogging segment: if another platform shares someone else's unique promo code, orders will still be credited to the author who initially received the promo code. The flexibility and variability of tracking leads to the emergence of new types of webmasters, for example, fintech sites, banks, airlines, apps for shopping and discounts, loyalty programs.

What awaits CPA in 2023: the trend for savings and the awakening of AI

According to Admitad forecasts, the decrease in marketing budgets will have a positive impact on the CPA industry, because companies are interested in predictable results and are no longer ready to inject huge budgets without a guarantee of sales. However, both advertisers and webmasters should take into account some trends that, according to Admitad, will help them catch the wave of success.

● Savings as a business model

In 2022, the purchasing power of the population began to decline. Therefore, the demand for those platforms that help make online purchases profitable will grow: cashback services, coupon and promotional code services, loyalty programs will be on the wave of success in 2023. As the practice of this year's Black Friday has shown, users continue to actively look for options to save money. So, according to Admitad, 20% of orders during the sale were brought by cashback services. Storefront sites helped another 14% of Russians make a bargain. And another 9% of orders were made using the offers of coupon sites.

● E-commerce market slowdown and online services growth

E-commerce growth will slow down due to difficult economic conditions such as inflation, declining purchasing power of the population, rising shipping costs and others.

● Artificial intelligence and automation  

The trend towards automation and the practical use of AI will completely take over the marketing market in 2023 and will affect CPA as well. For example, one of Admitad's solutions already uses artificial intelligence to improve webmasters' cash flow and speed up payouts. The trained algorithm calculates the amount that the advertiser will be able to approve and pay the publisher, and allows the affiliate to withdraw it without long weeks of waiting. In the future, artificial intelligence can be used to solve other problems in affiliate marketing.  Artificial intelligence can be used to set up and run A/B tests on affiliate campaigns to determine the most effective mechanics. AI can also be used in risk management, anti-fraud and partner scoring solutions, which will provide greater transparency of partnerships for advertisers. The economic situation is now posing many challenges for businesses, so the return on investment will be a key topic for many advertisers - including in marketing. Companies value transparency and carefully manage their budgets.

Unlike many other areas, this is not an obstacle for the CPA market, but a great opportunity to win the favor of brands. The affiliate industry, as the most predictable marketing tool, will not sag. On the contrary, businesses will become more interested in platforms with better traffic quality, transparent conditions and a flexible approach.